Google is destroying the web it built

By Ken Harlan, CEO and Founder, MobileFuse

For years, Google has stood as the primary gateway for consumers navigating the web, driving a significant percentage of all website traffic. In fact, Google is responsible for driving 91.54% of all global online traffic. In addition, the company has 132 billion visits per month as of May 2024. It's clear Google possesses massive influence in what users see and where users go across the internet.

That said, the introduction of Google's new search results, powered by Gemini AI, marks a dramatic shift in this story. This AI strategy now provides direct answers to user queries, reducing the need for consumers to click-through to actual websites. This introduces massive implications for web traffic dynamics and the broader digital ecosystem.

A continued wave of monopolistic incentive

The increasing centralization of web traffic and user engagement within Google's ecosystem continues to throw logs on the fire, in regards to the intensifying antitrust concerns. As Google dominates search and advertising markets, the competitive landscape for digital advertising becomes much more constrained. It is easy to forecast that this consolidation of power will likely lead to more scrutiny and regulatory action from antitrust authorities worldwide.

The truth is, Google isn't the only entity devising strategies to keep audiences on their owned platforms. X (formerly Twitter) and Meta (Facebook/Instagram) also decreased their website referral traffic to publishers over the past couple years – the largest players are all vying to hold as much user attention as possible. Notably, Axios found that Facebook referrals to news websites declined by around 80% since September 2020, while X traffic has shrunk by around 60% in the same period. We see strategies emerging on almost all large platforms, designed to keep users blissfully held hostage.

The changes these platforms make often aren't often transparent; they're results from algorithm changes, deprioritization of certain types of content, and organic changes in user behavior. Coupled with this is the near-term reality that third-party cookies are being eliminated. We're all well versed in the implications here, from a targeting and measurement perspective... that said, there appears to be even more incentive for brands and advertisers to double-down on finding alternative digital advertising opportunities.

As consumers spend increasing amounts of time on platforms directly within search results, the traditional model of driving traffic from search pages to websites is being upended. Because of this, there's a growing misalignment in ad spend, with a significant portion still allocated to traditional web traffic channels, despite the changing landscape.

Brands and advertisers must recalibrate their strategies to align with this new reality, and there is no better time to make these adjustments than now.

Testing and diversifying ad strategy is a MUST, more than ever

By embracing a diversified advertising strategy, brands can actually enhance their reach, deepen customer relationships, and drive sustainable growth – despite large platforms' push to hold audiences captive.

Relying on one or two advertising channels or platforms is clearly risky. By spreading ad spend across multiple platforms and companies, brands and advertisers actually reduce the impact of disruptions or algorithm changes on a single channel. Additionally, different channels attract distinct demographics and interests – this helps reach a wider audience and increase your brand's visibility. Another benefit of using a few platforms is you can actually analyse performance across various channels. This often leads to valuable insights into customer behaviour, preferences, and the effectiveness of different messaging.

One of the advantages of today's advertising ecosystem is the ability to assess market data, and learn which channels would perform best for your needs. With this in mind, recent data from eMarketer found that adults spend an average of over 4 hours a day with mobile internet – 88% of that time is spent within apps, while only 12% is spent on mobile web browsers. However, advertisers appear to be moving their ad spend in stark contrast to this; another report from eMarketer found mobile web ad spending will reach $36.70 billion in 2024, and it is expected to increase to over $40 billion in 2025. This is significantly less than the amount spent on in-app ads, which is forecasted to reach $165.88 billion in 2024 and account for 54% of all digital ad dollars. It's pretty clear this is a strong opportunity for marketers to correct the misallocation of spend towards web to app, and ensure they have several options for targeted campaigns. It's also worth calling out that apps are not beholden to challenges associated with search platform changes, making the channel a stable and informative one for most digital advertising campaigns.

That said, there are a few important ‘best practices' before making these strategy and tactic changes. Notably, it's critical to truly define and understand campaign goals. Clearly outline your objectives for each channel to pinpoint what success is. From there, be prepared to adjust messaging and creative in ways that work for each respective channel. For example, you can't just repurpose a CTV creative on mobile (and vice versa, for that matter) – there's different sizing and interactivity options. However, if you have a robust campaign, you likely have assets to use so you're not completely starting from scratch. After that, continuously test new channels, ad formats, and messaging to find what works best. Once you've locked that in, double-down as you reach and exceed your goals.

Google's shift towards AI-powered search results and the elimination of third-party cookies are transforming the web traffic landscape and the broader digital ecosystem – however, that doesn't need to be a death-blow. As fewer users click through to websites and tracking capabilities diminish, brands and advertisers must adapt their strategies to stay relevant. By diversifying ad spend and leveraging a variety of digital channels, advertisers can still effectively reach their target audiences. Now is the perfect time to make these critical adjustments and align with the new reality of digital advertising.